INDEPENDENT · NOT AFFILIATED WITH ANTHROPIC PBC · NO ADVICE · NO MONETISATION · DYOR
Bear case
Stated as strongly as the evidence allows, and no more. The bull case is built from the same figures and gets the same number of arguments.
Argument 01
Chan Ahn of Tessera PE argues that $2T implies roughly $725B of revenue by 2036 at a 10 percent cost of capital, which is far beyond any precedent.
Discussed in press reports. Never confirmed by the company.
Argument 02
The FT has reported buyers increasingly picking lower-cost models, which breaks the assumption that model progress converts into higher customer spend.
Third-party forecast, not company guidance.
Argument 03
SpaceX priced at about $1.77T in June 2026 and gave IPO buyers no return over the following two months, while Palantir trades near 53x forward revenue.
Closest recent comparable listing.
3 arguments run the other way and use the same sources.
READ THE BULL CASE →